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Diesel prices have not surged as anticipated ahead of the January 1 IMO 2020 marine fuel sulfur limit, with ULSD premiums over Brent falling since October. The IEA reports the oil market is already reacting in other parts of the supply chain.
The fading diesel premium suggests less near-term support for diesel and biodiesel demand, which is mildly bearish for vegetable oils tied to biofuel pull.
freightwaves.comJohn KingstonNov 16, 2019After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 54 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.8% to +2.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
