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The CME ULSD contract settled down 16.09 cents to 72.69 cents per gallon on April 21, a drop of 18.12% and the largest one-day decline since January 1991. The move followed WTI May futures turning negative the previous day.
Collapsing diesel futures lower the cost base for freight and farm operations, but the drop reflects severe demand destruction rather than a supply gain.
freightwaves.comJohn KingstonApr 21, 2020After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
CME ULSD futures fell 18% on April 21, the largest one-day drop since 1991, which accounts for a large share of the 5-day decline.
The record one-day ULSD drop to 72.69 cents on April 21 left futures deeply depressed, so a mean-reversion bounce in the following weeks looks outsized in percentage terms.
