
The weekly DOE/EIA benchmark retail diesel price rose 2 cents to $3.573 a gallon, even as CME ULSD futures fell 10.95 cents on Monday to $2.1286. The decline followed signs that Israel would not strike Iranian oil facilities after Iran's missile attacks.
Retail diesel lags futures, so the fall in ULSD futures points to lower fuel surcharges and diesel costs for feed transport in coming weeks. Easing Middle East risk premium removes a bullish factor for energy.
After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.