
The DOE/EIA benchmark diesel price rose 4.7 cents to $3.631 a gallon, its fourth straight weekly gain. Meanwhile ULSD futures fell for a third day, dropping to their lowest since October 2 as Iran-Israel war premiums faded.
Futures weakness signals that retail diesel will likely fall as the lag catches up, lowering freight costs for feed. The retail rise reflects earlier wholesale gains.
After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.