
Scotiabank's currency strategist says the loonie's correlation with crude oil, which hit a near three-year low, should reassert itself now that crude has broken above its US$40-55 range. Commodities important to Canada have outperformed their peers since early 2016.
If oil drives the loonie higher, Canadian export pricing shifts and the outlook for oil-linked feed costs changes.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.