Reports show US crude and fuel stockpiles continuing to fall and remaining well below the decade-low levels of 2022. Weekly diesel product supplies show year-over-year declines, while exports stay strong as Europe and Latin America rely more on US fuel following Western sanctions on Russian energy.
Global oil consumption is at a record of about 102.5 million barrels per day.
Low US distillate inventories and strong export demand leave less buffer against refinery disruptions, supporting diesel and freight costs. Record global oil use keeps energy-linked input costs firm.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.