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US refiners are benefiting as buyers compete for a shrinking supply of refined products. Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel draw on the same refinery capacity, and the squeeze is expected to intensify into winter.
Competition for limited refinery output keeps diesel prices firm, adding to fuel and freight costs for the feed supply chain through the winter.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.