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A recovery in US manufacturing is expected to pull on diesel supplies, since US distillate stocks are very low after the downturn. Distillate consumption tracks the industrial cycle and freight activity.
Rising industrial and freight demand would deplete inventories further and support diesel prices, which raises operating costs for feed transport.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.