OPIS's Tom Kloza says US diesel pump prices could exceed $4 a gallon next year and may revisit record highs within a year or two. Pump diesel stood at $3.167 on the reported Friday and averaged $3.09 in May, the highest monthly level since December 2014.
Expectations of record diesel prices, tied to global demand strength and the 2020 marine fuel rule, point to sustained freight and processing cost increases. This adds to upward cost pressure across feed supply chains.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.