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Global diesel prices are expected to find support in 2025 from the closure of about 1% of global refining capacity. Traders and analysts said this offsets current weakness and structural pressure from the shift to cleaner fuels.
Lower refining capacity could tighten diesel supply and limit downside in fuel prices, which affects freight and energy costs for feed producers.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.