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S&P Global interviewed Duane Lowry, who said a Trump victory could prompt China to seek better relations by boosting US agricultural imports, recalling a prior trade deal. Operators expect no trade disruption regardless of the election outcome, and a possible dollar devaluation could support commodity prices.
Expected Chinese purchase increases would support US grain and soybean demand, while a weaker dollar would lift dollar-denominated commodity prices.
spglobal.comOct 30, 2024After 123 past bullish macro events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish macro events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
