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A Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago analysis warns that climate change poses serious risks to Midwest agriculture through higher temperatures and greater variability during the corn and soybean growing season. It also notes the region's importance to farm lending and banking.
Long-run yield variability in the Midwest is a supply risk that could tighten corn and soybean balances over time. The article is a structural risk assessment with no immediate price catalyst.
chicagofed.orgDavid Oppedahl, Chad JorgensenApr 17, 2023After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 123 past bullish macro events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
