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An Emerald expert briefing says Argentina's export tax and quota removals under President Macri boosted grain and meat output, but a severe drought cut soy and maize production. It also notes a new China deal could lift beef exports while fiscal limits may constrain irrigation plans.
Lower Argentine soy and maize output reduces exportable supply for feed ingredients, while beef export growth to China could modestly support cattle demand over time.
doi.orgJun 26, 2018After 123 past bullish macro events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.9%), and +1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
