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A University of Tennessee economist writes that cattle prices are expected to rise in 2023 and likely for a couple of years after, due to reduced heifer and cow retention. A smaller calf crop in 2023 and 2024 is expected, with drought-driven herd reductions a further factor.
Expectations of a shrinking beef herd support higher cattle prices ahead, which raises feeder cattle costs and the value of feed sold into longer-term feedlot demand.
utbeef.tennessee.eduDec 1, 2022After 28 past bullish macro events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.9%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 21 past bullish macro events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
