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A University of Kentucky livestock economist reviews 2021 as a year of modest cattle price gains, drought in parts of the US, and higher feed costs. He argues fed cattle output peaked in 2021 as beef cow herd declines continue.
Shrinking cow herd and calf crops point to tighter supplies that should support cattle prices, while higher feed costs weigh on feeder margins.
u.osu.eduSmith atDec 22, 2021After 28 past bullish macro events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.9%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 21 past bullish macro events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +2.4% over 20.
After 78 past neutral macro events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
