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An Ohio State Extension summary of a January 2022 beef outlook talk by Dr. Andrew Griffith says US cow numbers are down due to drought west of the Mississippi and heifer and cull cow slaughter rose. Demand for US beef in export and domestic markets is described as strong, with China becoming the third-largest US beef importer in 2021.
A shrinking cow herd should support strong fed cattle and feeder prices into 2022-2024, though rising input costs weigh on margins.
u.osu.edumarrison.2 atJan 31, 2022After 28 past bullish macro events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.9%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 21 past bullish macro events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
