
Feeder cattle prices are at levels not seen since summer 2015 due to a small national herd. The author traces the cattle cycle from the 2014 inventory low through the current tight supply.
A structurally small cow herd keeps feeder supplies scarce, which supports prices for feeder cattle and calves and strengthens demand for feed grains over the coming months.
After 21 past bullish macro events, FCATTLE moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +2.4% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, LCATTLE moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.9%), and +1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.