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The Brazilian real has fallen about 12% against the dollar year-to-date, the worst performing major currency, amid concerns over President Lula's looser economic rhetoric. The government announced a BRL15 billion spending freeze to meet its 2024 fiscal target, with further cuts of BRL10-15 billion likely needed.
Currency weakness and fiscal discipline shape Brazil's export competitiveness for soybeans, corn and meal, and influence domestic feed input costs and global trade flows.
economics.bmo.comArt WooAug 9, 2024After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 73 past neutral macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.1%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 78 past neutral macro events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
