The Brazilian real strengthened past 5.16-5.3 per US dollar, reaching its strongest level since May 2024 as the dollar weakened on expectations of a December Fed rate cut. Brazil's unemployment fell to 5.4% and real wages rose, while the Central Bank held the Selic at 15%.
A firmer real and high Brazilian rates support carry inflows and lower the cost of dollar-priced imports for Brazilian feed buyers, which can ease pressure on local soymeal and corn import parity.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 73 past neutral macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.1%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.