China not purchasing soybeans from the U.S. is not new

After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Apr 22, 2019The dollar is too strong for U.S. companies-3.0%
• Jun 11, 2019For China's yuan, the path toward 7 per dollar is now wide open | The Straits Times+6.3%
• Oct 26, 2026Soybeans Hit 2-Month Low as Lula’s Win Lifts China Trade Outlook-1.5%
• Feb 28, 2022Soymeal Demand Slowing in China+5.4%
• Dec 16, 2022Global recession worries chip away at corn, soybeans – The Seam-0.4%

After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Oct 29, 2026The sharp fall in the real exchange rate has caused soybean meal prices to collapse in Brazil and China, which is increasing pressure on prices in Ukraine.-3.3%
• Oct 10, 2023Argentina’s Currency Plummets Under Attack from Far-Right Candidate - The New York Times+4.8%
• Feb 28, 2022Soymeal Demand Slowing in China+4.2%
• Dec 16, 2022Global recession worries chip away at corn, soybeans – The Seam-0.6%
• May 18, 2017U.S. grains: Soybeans fall as Brazilian currency dives - AgCanada-2.8%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.