Soybeans Hit 2-Month Low as Lula’s Win Lifts China Trade Outlook

After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Dec 3, 2024China’s yuan hits lowest level in months as Trump tariff threats roil currencies | South China Morning Post+0.5%
• Nov 12, 2024China’s yuan weakens to 3-1/2-month low as Trump tariff threat weighs - Markets - Business Recorder-0.2%
• Apr 21, 2022China's yuan slides to 6-month low as tightening prospects help dollar | Financial Post-1.2%
• Sep 27, 2019Its leash lengthened, China's yuan flirts with trade war role+2.6%
• May 4, 2018China not purchasing soybeans from the U.S. is not new-2.9%

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Jan 23, 2020With a Big Crop Expected, Brazil's Soybean Harvest Is Slow+0.7%
• Jun 7, 2022Brazilian real hits 2-week low, Chilean peso slips before rate move | Financial Post+6.3%
• Jan 24, 2023Lula’s Jab at Central Bank Puts Traders on Edge Across Brazil - Bloomberg-1.7%
• Sep 30, 2019Latam markets subdued as trade woes persist | Financial Post-2.3%
• Oct 26, 2026Elections in Brazil: Lula returns to power, markets react with panic. Brazilian ETF loses nearly 15% in Tokyo. What about USDBRL, soybeans, sugar, BRAComp, and ETFs?+7.6%