Loading…
Lula won Brazil's presidential runoff against Flavio Bolsonaro with about 52% of the vote. The Tokyo-traded Bovespa ETF fell nearly 15%, and Chicago soybean futures dropped to a two-month low as investors anticipated stronger trade ties with China.
A weaker real and expectations of closer Brazil-China trade ties add pressure on soybean prices, since Brazil is the main competing exporter. The election also raises fiscal and currency risk for Brazilian feed costs.
xtb.comXTB.comOct 26, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Describes market panic after Lula's win, with the Brazilian ETF down nearly 15% and USDBRL in focus.
Documents the panic in Brazilian markets and the USDBRL reaction right after the election result.
