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Brazilian real futures fell about 10% on Sunday, October 25, after Lula won re-election with roughly 51.8% of valid votes. Overseas November futures implied about R$5.56 per dollar, though this was not a confirmed spot rate.
The regular foreign-exchange market had not yet traded on the result.
The implied currency move signals a weaker real that would lower Brazilian export prices in dollar terms and raise import costs. Actual spot trading will determine the impact on Brazilian feed and grain prices.
ebc.comCharon N.Oct 26, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
BRL futures fell about 10% before spot opened, showing the shock that fed through to spot on the first trading day.
BRL futures fell about 10% on Oct 25 on the election result, pricing in the gap-down before spot opened.
