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Brazil's real fell 1.2% on Monday after President Lula unveiled a 10-year industrial development plan using state credits and subsidies. Investors sold the currency, seeing the plan as a risk to fiscal health and moving into dollars for protection.
A weaker real makes Brazilian exports such as soybeans, soymeal and corn cheaper in dollar terms, which can support Brazilian selling pressure on world feed markets. Fiscal concerns could also keep the currency weak for longer.
reuters.comBernardo CaramJan 22, 2024After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
