Brazil’s real weakens, interest rates climb under Trump effect

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Nov 14, 2016Brazil real weakens for fourth day as Trump concern boosts U.S. yields+0.7%
• May 22, 2018brazil-currency-weakness-halts-the-interest-rate-cuts+0.5%
• Jul 31, 2024Brazil holds interest rates as expected, flags 'greater caution'-0.2%
• Sep 19, 2019Brazil Cuts Interest Rate to Fresh Record Low+2.0%
• Apr 29, 2020Decline in Brazil’s Real Underscores Need for Hedging-0.0%

After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Apr 29, 2020Decline in Brazil’s Real Underscores Need for Hedging+1.1%
• Oct 1, 2026Brazilian Real: Exchange rate seen weaker into year-end – Rabobank+3.2%
• Aug 13, 2024Brazil's central bank had no reason to intervene in FX amid 'accelerated weakening'-2.6%
• Jan 23, 2024Brazil's real weakens past 5.00 per dollar for 1st time since November-0.4%
• Jan 9, 2023Brazil’s Real Weakens Following Attacks on Government Buildings+1.7%