Brazilian Real: Exchange rate seen weaker into year-end

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Sep 19, 2022USD/BRL: Still see it a 5.30 by year-end – Rabobank — Elev8-0.9%
• Nov 12, 2024Brazil’s real weakens, interest rates climb under Trump effect-0.6%
• Mar 5, 2020Brazilian Real (BRL USD) Plunges to Record Low as Rate Cut Seen - Bloomberg+3.0%
• Jun 14, 2022Analysis: Exchange rate unlikely to mean trouble for Brazil’s Central Bank+0.7%
• Aug 28, 2026Brazilian Real Weakens as Fed Hike Bets Rise-1.2%

After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Nov 12, 2024Brazil’s real weakens, interest rates climb under Trump effect-1.9%
• Jun 27, 2024Market confidence wanes, weakening Brazilian real+1.8%
• Feb 12, 2020Brazilian real's new low vs dollar brings year-to-date loss to almost 8% By Reuters+0.8%
• Aug 13, 2024Brazil's central bank had no reason to intervene in FX amid 'accelerated weakening'-2.6%
• Mar 18, 2020Brazil central bank wades into FX, bond markets but real slump accelerates | Financial Post+11.3%