◂ Event Timeline

Sep 19, 2022MACROBrazil

USD/BRL: Still see it a 5.30 by year-end

Rabobank maintains its forecast of USD/BRL at 5.30 by end-2022, citing a hawkish Federal Reserve, safe-haven dollar demand and the Brazilian electoral cycle weighing on local assets. The pair was falling on September 19 after its highest close since early August.

WHY IT MATTERS

A forecast of a weaker real implies higher dollar costs for Brazilian soy, meal and corn exports priced in local currency. This supports dollar-denominated commodity prices for importers.

AFFECTSBrazilian Real (BRL per USD)▲

SOURCE
th.elev8trading.nowSep 19, 2022

Price reaction & history

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)▲bullishSO FAR1d -2.1%5d -0.9%20d -0.5%

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

Sep 30, 2019USD/BRL: Year end forecast raised by 10-cents to 3.90 - Rabobank - Forex Crunch-2.3%
Oct 1, 2026Brazilian Real: Exchange rate seen weaker into year-end – Rabobank-3.5%
Nov 28, 2024BRL: Real hits four year low on fiscal concerns – ING — Elev8+1.7%
Jul 18, 2018Brazil: Presidential race about to start - Rabobank - Forex Crunch-3.2%
Apr 17, 2017USD/BRL: An overvalued currency – Lloyds Bank — Octa+0.1%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) USDBRL · GP ▸

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