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Lloyds Bank analysts say the Brazilian real is overvalued by about 13% against the US dollar. They expect the real to weaken modestly as pension reform meets resistance in Congress and the central bank cuts rates.
The bank frames a weaker real as only a partial retracement of last year's gains.
A weaker real would make Brazilian agricultural exports cheaper in dollar terms, supporting Brazilian competitiveness in soy, meal and corn and potentially pressuring global prices.
octaafrica.netApr 17, 2017After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
