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Rabobank raised its year-end USD/BRL forecast by 10 cents to 3.90 for both 2019 and 2020. The bank said about 30% of the move from roughly 3.70 in mid-July to about 4.15 in late September reflects external drivers, mainly the stronger dollar after the Sino-American trade dispute.
A weaker real forecast supports Brazilian export competitiveness for soybeans, corn and meal, which can cap USD prices. The bank's view that the currency could still ease later adds uncertainty for export-driven demand.
forexcrunch.comFX StreetSep 30, 2019After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
