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Rabobank says global risk aversion caught Brazil partly unprepared, with assets selling off and the October presidential race adding uncertainty. It projects the real at 3.70 per dollar by year-end under a reformist scenario, versus a short-term fair value near 4.10.
Political risk that weakens the real makes Brazilian commodity exports more competitive in dollar terms, a factor for soybean, corn and meal pricing.
forexcrunch.comFX StreetJul 18, 2018After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
