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Brazilian markets fell sharply on March 18, 2020, and the real slid almost 5% to as low as 5.2490 per dollar. Central bank foreign exchange and bond interventions did not stop the sell-off, and the currency's 2020 losses approached 25%.
A weaker real makes Brazilian exports cheaper in dollar terms, which can pressure dollar prices for Brazilian soy and corn and encourage farmers to sell more. The currency move is therefore bearish for those commodities.
reuters.comJamie McGeeverMar 18, 2020After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On March 18 the real slid almost 5% to about 5.25 per dollar despite central bank intervention, which accounts for a large part of the 5-day move ending that date.
The real's near-5% slide on March 18 despite central bank intervention shows the momentum and risk aversion that carried into the following sessions.
