
The Brazilian real weakened to its lowest level since the early 2020 pandemic sell-off, according to ING's FX analyst. ING forecasts USD/BRL at 6.25 in 12 months, citing fiscal slippage and global trade war risk.
A sustained weak real makes Brazilian soybean and corn exports more competitive, which tends to weigh on international feed grain and meal prices.
After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 117 past bearish macro events, SBM moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.