Brazil's real weakens past 5.00 per dollar for 1st time since November

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Nov 14, 2016Brazil real weakens for fourth day as Trump concern boosts U.S. yields+0.7%
• Nov 10, 2022EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real sinks 4%, other FX rally on dollar weakness+6.0%
• Jan 9, 2023Brazil’s Real Weakens Following Attacks on Government Buildings-3.0%
• Jan 22, 2021Latam FX falls as dollar rises, Brazil real lags peers for the week - Markets - Business Recorder+0.4%
• Nov 12, 2024Brazil’s real weakens, interest rates climb under Trump effect-0.6%

After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Jan 9, 2023Brazil’s Real Weakens Following Attacks on Government Buildings+1.7%
• Nov 12, 2024Brazil’s real weakens, interest rates climb under Trump effect-1.9%
• Jan 20, 2023Brazil's real set for 2% weekly loss on worries over c.bank independence | Financial Post+0.6%
• Feb 12, 2020Brazilian real's new low vs dollar brings year-to-date loss to almost 8% By Reuters+0.8%
• Apr 29, 2020Decline in Brazil’s Real Underscores Need for Hedging+1.1%

After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jun 30, 2021U.S. dollar posts best month since November 2016; nonfarm payrolls loom | Financial Post+2.0%
• Feb 28, 2023Dollar edges higher, headed for 1st monthly gain since September+1.5%
• May 14, 2019Brazil's Real slides past 4.00 to the US dollar as China/US trade dispute escalates — MercoPress+5.2%
• Dec 30, 2021Dollar on track for best year since 2015+2.0%
• Nov 7, 2024Trump's win emboldens dollar bulls as they brace for tariffs | Reuters+1.0%