
The dollar index was set to end 2021 up nearly 7%, its best year since 2015, as markets expected the Fed to raise rates as early as March. The Canadian dollar was roughly flat for the year while the yen fell about 10% and the euro about 7%.
A stronger dollar generally weighs on dollar-denominated grain and oilseed prices and makes US exports less competitive, while weaker emerging-market and yen currencies can curb import demand.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.