U.S. dollar posts best month since November 2016; nonfarm payrolls loom

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• May 1, 2022Dollar slips, but posts best month since 2015+0.3%
• Jan 31, 2024Dollar's largest monthly gain since September | EBC Financial Group+0.3%
• May 31, 2021Dollar near 2-month high vs yen, U.S. inflation beats expectations | Financial Post-0.2%
• Feb 2, 2021Dollar stands tall on better U.S. outlook vs Europe | Financial Post-0.3%
• Sep 17, 2020Dollar edges higher as Fed outlook lifts U.S. yields | Financial Post+1.6%

After 301 past bearish macro events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Mar 18, 2020U.S. corn skids 2.2% to lowest level since September 2016; wheat, soy rise | Financial Post-0.6%
• Apr 21, 2022China's yuan slides to 6-month low as tightening prospects help dollar | Financial Post-1.5%
• May 13, 2020Dollar up as Powell downplays chances of negative U.S. interest rates | Financial Post-0.3%
• Dec 30, 2021Dollar on track for best year since 2015+2.1%
• Sep 28, 2023Dollar index powers to 10-month high - Business & Finance - Business Recorder+1.1%

After 273 past bearish macro events, SOY moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Apr 21, 2022China's yuan slides to 6-month low as tightening prospects help dollar | Financial Post-1.2%
• Jan 23, 2024Brazil's real weakens past 5.00 per dollar for 1st time since November-2.5%
• May 13, 2020Dollar up as Powell downplays chances of negative U.S. interest rates | Financial Post-0.8%
• Dec 30, 2021Dollar on track for best year since 2015+2.0%
• Sep 28, 2023Dollar index powers to 10-month high - Business & Finance - Business Recorder-2.3%