Brazil's real fell more than 4% on fiscal concerns while other emerging market currencies rallied after U.S. October inflation came in below expectations. The dollar fell 1.8% and bets on a smaller Fed hike increased, and Mexico's central bank raised rates by 75 basis points to 10%.
A weaker dollar supports dollar-priced commodities, while a weaker real improves Brazil's export competitiveness for soybeans and corn.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.