
The Brazilian real dropped about 12% against the dollar in spot trading after Lula's re-election, which came after Flavio Bolsonaro led the first round. Bovespa futures fell nearly 15%, and the stock exchange halted trading for 30 minutes.
Bolsonaro has refused to concede, adding to uncertainty.
The sharp real sell-off raises the dollar cost of Brazilian feed ingredients and makes Brazilian exporters more competitive, which can weigh on world soymeal and corn prices. Investors are also pricing in tighter fiscal policy and higher rates.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reports the spot BRL drop of about 12% after Lula's re-election, directly describing the currency move and its trigger.
Spot BRL fell about 12% after Lula's re-election with a trading halt, which directly explains the 5-day currency move.