Soybean meal demand in China is slowing as weaker economic growth reduces domestic chicken and pork demand. USDA cut its forecast for Chinese soybean crush and imports by 3 million tonnes each, to 94 million and 97 million tonnes, because negative crush margins slowed processing.
Lower Chinese crush and import forecasts reduce global soybean and soymeal demand, which is bearish for soybean meal prices. The smaller crush also trims soybean oil output, partly offsetting the meal effect.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 40 past bearish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -4.5% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.