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An analysis argues soybean oil prices have often led crude oil moves because vegetable oil markets are small and sensitive to shifts in crude. The key link is biofuel mandates in 64 countries, where refiners buy more or less vegetable oil depending on crude supply and demand.
Biofuel-linked demand means crude price swings transmit to vegetable oil and soymeal-linked oilseed prices, so feed buyers should watch crude as a leading indicator.
peterknightadvisor.comAsset Investment ManagementNov 21, 2018After 102 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.
After 75 past macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -2.7% to +1.7%), and -1.9% over 20.
After 86 past neutral macro events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
