ANZ analysts say the ringgit has decoupled from oil prices due to temporary factors such as divergent crude, LNG and palm oil prices, and durable structural changes in Malaysia's energy trade. They expect the disconnect to persist for some time.
The analysis suggests the ringgit will not track oil closely, which matters for palm oil buyers hedging currency exposure against crude-linked moves.
After 102 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.