China oil futures launch may threaten primacy of U.S. dollar: UBS

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Dec 2, 2016Dollar tanks as U.S. jobs cast doubt on pace of future hikes | Reuters-0.5%
• Jan 4, 2019Dollar cycle may be about to turn, supporting oil prices: Kemp-1.2%
• Aug 21, 2017Macroscope | How to read the outlook for the US dollar | South China Morning Post-0.6%
• Nov 4, 2019Three Forces Weakening US Dollar’s Grip On Commodity Pricing | Wood Mackenzie+0.5%
• Dec 15, 2017Here’s what’s threatening the dollar in 2018 - MarketWatch-0.2%

After 102 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.

• Jul 29, 2026ING Says Dollar to Take Cue from Oil Prices If Fed Holds Rate | Financial Post-4.4%
• Jan 1, 2026COMMENTARY: China overtakes OPEC+ as the main oil price maker+0.8%
• Dec 1, 2017Crude oil prices to be under pressure in first half of 2018: S&P-1.5%
• May 29, 2026Cattle futures slip on fuel price demand fears - CME | The Beef Site+4.6%
• Nov 28, 2022Canadian dollar posts biggest decline in six weeks as China outlook weighs - The Globe and Mail+4.6%