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Brazil's fertilizer industry expects 2026/27 deliveries to fall at least 10% as the Middle East conflict raises logistics costs, while rising farm debt and pricier credit delay purchases. Soybean fertilizer buying is about 80% complete, five points behind last year, and second-crop corn purchases stand at 30% versus 35%.
Mosaic says sales gained momentum over the past three weeks as soybean prices recovered.
Lower fertilizer demand in Brazil reduces import pull on phosphate and urea and weighs on fertilizer-linked prices, while farmers' weaker margins may trim planted area for future feed grain and meal supply.
valorinternational.globo.comDanton Boatini JúniorJul 30, 2026After 113 past macro events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.3%), and +3.7% over 20.
After 45 past macro events, DAP moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.1%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 50 past neutral macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
