
Global natural gas prices kept falling as warm weather, ample supply and banking sector turmoil weighed on energy markets. The May TTF contract fell about 13% the prior week and another 8% on March 20 to its lowest since July 2021.
Lower gas and energy prices reduce nitrogen fertilizer costs and weaken the energy complex, adding downward pressure on feed input costs.
After 59 past bearish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -5.0% to +5.2%), and -2.0% over 20.
After 113 past macro events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.3%), and +3.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.