Natural gas: Lower TTF path but winter risks

After 59 past bearish macro events, NATGAS moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -5.0% to +5.2%), and -2.0% over 20.

• Mar 26, 2020How coronavirus will alter natural gas markets-5.2%
• Oct 23, 2026U.S. Natural Gas Futures Fall on Mild Near-Term Weather - WSJ+2.3%
• May 14, 2020How Will Natural Gas Navigate The Post-Coronavirus World?+13.4%
• May 7, 2019Natural gas and coal: Plunging prices+5.3%
• May 11, 2020Natural Gas Exports Slow as Pandemic Reduces Global Demand - The New York Times-7.2%

After 113 past macro events, UREA moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.3%), and +3.7% over 20.

• Oct 23, 2026U.S. Natural Gas Futures Fall on Mild Near-Term Weather - WSJ-0.1%
• Mar 20, 2023Global Natural Gas Prices Keep Falling as Demand Weakens, Banking Crisis Weighs on Markets – LNG Recap+0.3%
• Mar 24, 2023US natgas prices slump after mild winter leaves big surplus | Reuters-0.8%
• Jan 9, 2023Looking to a turn in the commodity price cycle - CRU Group-2.9%
• Nov 29, 2022Europe: Nitrates prices decline following restarts; now nearing breakeven levels-4.0%