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DTN analysis says the Brazilian real has weakened in March as economic growth remains sluggish, with the April contract falling to 25.685 cents. The article also notes the Russian ruble and euro as competing currencies, with the ruble near 1.53 cents and the euro at $1.1375.
Weaker currencies in these exporting countries make their wheat, corn and soy more competitive.
A softer real improves Brazil's export competitiveness for corn and soybeans, which is bearish for US crop prices. The ruble's weakness supports Russian wheat exports.
dtnpf.comTodd HultmanMar 25, 2019After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 69 past bearish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.6% to +0.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
