
Funds entered 2025 with their most bullish CBOT corn view in two years. CBOT wheat futures had fallen to two-year highs against a strengthening US dollar, making US exports less competitive.
Winter wheat planting data was due the following Friday.
Fund buying supports corn prices, while a stronger dollar reduces US wheat export competitiveness and weighs on wheat values.
After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 69 past bearish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.6% to +0.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Funds' most bullish corn positioning in two years indicates speculative buying support that can amplify upside moves.