
Brazil's real closed at 5.8159 per dollar on February 3, stronger for an 11th straight session and its longest winning streak since April 2005. The currency recovered losses after Trump agreed to pause tariffs on Mexico for a month.
A stronger real reduces the competitiveness of Brazilian soybean and corn exports, supporting higher global prices for those crops. The tariff pause reduces near-term trade shock risk for feed markets.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 123 past bullish macro events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.