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Brazil's real firmed 0.2% against a weaker U.S. dollar as flattening Treasury yields raised concerns about a U.S. recession and lowered expectations for further Fed rate hikes. Brazil's benchmark stock index rose about 0.3% and was on track for a record closing high.
Mexico's peso weakened 0.6% amid doubts about a government plan to buy back debt tied to a canceled airport project.
A firmer real and softer dollar generally improve Brazil's export competitiveness for soy and meal and can support Brazilian farm selling, while a weaker dollar tends to lift dollar-denominated commodity prices. The move is a currency and rates story with limited direct effect on feed prices.
reuters.comAgamoni GhoshDec 4, 2018After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
