◂ Event Timeline

Sep 1, 2025MACROUS

Stocks hit fresh record high but US dollar weakens as Fed rate cut expectations gain momentum

Stocks hit a record high while the dollar weakened after softer-than-expected consumer price data increased bets on US rate cuts. Traders priced a 94% chance of a September Fed cut, up from about 57% a month earlier.

WHY IT MATTERS

Stronger odds of Fed easing weigh on the dollar, which can underpin dollar-denominated commodity prices and risk appetite across energy and agriculture.

AFFECTSDXY▼

SOURCE
reuters.comNaomi RovnickSep 1, 2025

Price reaction & history

DXY▼bearishSO FAR1d +0.4%5d -0.1%20d -0.1%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

Aug 16, 2024Gold rallies to record high on softer dollar, rate-cut expectations | Reuters-0.2%
Nov 27, 2023US dollar weakens as Fed rate cut view weighs-0.2%
Oct 31, 2019Gold gains as dollar weakens after Fed's interest rate cut-0.1%
Jun 2, 2019The Australian dollar is grinding higher as expectations for rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve build-0.8%
Dec 4, 2018Brazil stocks gain; real firms as U.S. dollar weakens+0.7%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

DXY · GP ▸

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