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Brazil's real and stock index rallied after Jair Bolsonaro's strong first-round showing in the presidential election, with state-owned firms leading gains. Markets read his victory as market-friendly, with economist Paulo Guedes advising him.
A firmer real lowers the local cost of Brazilian soybean and corn exports, which can weigh on world prices, while policy clarity supports investment in Brazilian agriculture and logistics.
reuters.comSusan MathewOct 8, 2018After 213 past bearish macro events, USDBRL moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, SOY moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The real and stocks rallied on Bolsonaro's strong first-round result, which markets read as market-friendly, boosting demand for BRL.
The real rallied on Bolsonaro's strong first-round showing, which markets read as market-friendly, so inflows and risk appetite strengthened the currency.
